Our future

[enjenjo]

DOOMSAYERS PREDICT THE END OF CARS

Auto industry decimated and no more car dealers by 2024 says US think tank
By NEIL DOWLING from today's news media

A FUTURE of electric cars, autonomous vehicles, shared ownership and ride sharing is seen as being inevitable and rapidly approaching the automotive industry, although one commentator has painted a pessimistic outlook for some players.
Like the sudden end of photographic film and the saturation of digital cameras, electric cars and autonomous vehicles are poised to change our lives and if you want to pick a date, an independent US think tank called RethinkX has called 2021.
That's the year that it says is the "disruption point" and in the 10 years leading to 2030, will shatter the automobile industry by deconstructing car dealerships, eradicating the used-car industry, shrinking the number of vehicles on the roads and slashing oil consumption.
There is not a lot of good news in RethinkX's report. The business is described as one that analyses and forecasts the speed and scale of technology-driven disruption and its implications across society.
"We know of no other market where a 10x cost differential has not led to a disruption," it said.
"This very significant cost differential will be the key driver for rapid and widespread transport as a service (TaaS) adoption for car owners.
"Potential car buyers will stop buying new cars. This will drive a rapid decline in production of new cars. As the volume of new-car sales falls, revenues will shrink and profits will drop even further.
"A vicious cycle will ensue, leading to factory closures and consolidation of production. The consequences of a shrinking industry will include a loss of economies of scale, which will lead to higher manufacturing costs for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. "The result of increased supply of TaaS and reduced demand for individual owned cars is that the resale value of all used cars will plummet.
"The rising cost of maintenance, gasoline and insurance; the cost of storing or taxing worthless vehicles; and the lack of a used-car market might mean that prices go to zero or even below. That is to say, owners may need to pay to dispose of their cars.
"New ICE vehicle sales are finished by 2024, just three years after the regulatory approval and commercial availability of autonomous EV technology.
"In 2024, the pre-existing vehicle stock can more than meet the passenger-mile requirement for transport under individual ownership.
"Car dealers cease to exist by 2024, with no new individual ownership car sales from 2024 onwards and no direct consumer purchases given that TaaS vehicles will be fleet owned.
"Car insurance will be disrupted by a 90 per cent fall in the insurance costs incurred by TaaS users (relative to individual ownership), which is driven by the elimination of theft and sharp reductions in insurer costs for liability, injury and vehicle damage.

[Carnut]

Lets just say I'm just a bit skeptical

[58 Yeoman]

I think it was back in '58 that they said that by now, we'd be flying our cars through the air and living like George Jetson, and that monorails would be everywhere (not just Disneyworld and Disneyland). I'm going to wait and see...

[Charlie Chops 1940]

Fling cars are in our future again - saw it on the internet last week - must be true.

Anybody who has an internet connection can be a think tank. I think that outfit is full of horse pucker.

[idrivejunk]

Meadow muffins.    

All I want to know is how soon can they please outlaw blinding headlights on new vehicles.    :?:

[UGLY OLDS]

Charlie ...Phil....   They were just a little bit off about "flying cars" ....They actually meant to say "Flying Trucks" ...    

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ryt1GMmkVMY

Bob...

[Crosley.In.AZ]

Article is a fantasy piece, as I see it.

We have the self driving cars here in metro Phx...  If you watch the news much, you may have heard.

i've been asking questions on social media  as:  "how well do these self driving cars see motorcycles" ...  No direct answer yet.

We had a self driving car rear end a motorcycle officer stopped at traffic lite. The officer noticed the car start to roll up on him, he bailed off the bike. The car lightly hit the bike as the bike laid on the ground.  How accurate the article I read was?  I dont know.

[GPster]

If they make electric flying cars powered by lithium batteries that idea will do itself in. Human nature is set-up with the idea that every thing should be bettER and that somebody (like Trump) can do it bEST but I find enough to worry about with-outlooking to far to someone to tell me what I should be worrying about. I've tried a long time to impress myself with my Jeepster (GPster) but I am coming to the reality that it will only be JST3DRV. GPster

[kb426]

In 1962 or 3, either Ford Times or the annual buyers guide predicted that by the 1980's, autos would be guided by a wire in the pavement transmitting a signal for navigation. Little slow to change, aren't we. If you believe "follow the trail of the money", you'll know if something is possible.

[papastoyss]

This Dowling fellow must be bosom buddies w/ Al Gore.

[Mac]

Time for rodders to embrace electric power? I'm warming to the idea and glancing at my Karmann Ghia.

[river1]

Meadow muffins.    

All I want to know is how soon can they please outlaw blinding headlights on new vehicles.    :?:

Time for rodders to embrace electric power? I'm warming to the idea and glancing at my Karmann Ghia.

i've had an idea in back of my brain for an electric powered hot rod. at my current  pace i'll be dead 20 years before i get around to it

later jim

[BFS57]

Hello;
Don't believe anything in the internet!!! Opinions are like butt holes, "everybody has one!"

Bruce

[river1]

Meadow muffins.    

All I want to know is how soon can they please outlaw blinding headlights on new vehicles.    :?:

and as to why we don't have such headlights

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2017/05/26/outdated-headlights-put-drivers-and-pedestrians-risk/102108152/

later jim

[58 Yeoman]

Does anyone remember back in the 60's when the US banned glass covers over headlights, i.e. VW and Jaguar? Interfered with lighting. Now, we have cheap plastic that fogs up in a couple years, severely blocking light, not to mention the stupid black covers people are putting on their headlights and taillights.

I wonder about pedestrians hit by cars at night. When I would cross the road/street at night and see headlights coming, I wait til the car passes. Hell, even in daylight...you never know if the driver is paying attention or not. There is a 'rural-ish' street in Peoria, IL that has signs on the roadsides telling pedestrians to walk facing traffic (a lot of foot traffic on that road). Guess what? They still walk on the wrong side.

You can legislate/mandate all the safety features into cars that you want, but it still comes down to the drivers and pedestrians taking responsibility for themselves. There are features that help drivers, like parallel parking assist, but driver training should be taught using a basic car w/o all the extra features.