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Our future

 
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enjenjo
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PostPosted: Fri, May 19 2017, 10:21 am    Post subject: Our future Reply with quote

DOOMSAYERS PREDICT THE END OF CARS

Auto industry decimated and no more car dealers by 2024 says US think tank
By NEIL DOWLING from today's news media

A FUTURE of electric cars, autonomous vehicles, shared ownership and ride sharing is seen as being inevitable and rapidly approaching the automotive industry, although one commentator has painted a pessimistic outlook for some players.
Like the sudden end of photographic film and the saturation of digital cameras, electric cars and autonomous vehicles are poised to change our lives and if you want to pick a date, an independent US think tank called RethinkX has called 2021.
That’s the year that it says is the “disruption point” and in the 10 years leading to 2030, will shatter the automobile industry by deconstructing car dealerships, eradicating the used-car industry, shrinking the number of vehicles on the roads and slashing oil consumption.
There is not a lot of good news in RethinkX’s report. The business is described as one that analyses and forecasts the speed and scale of technology-driven disruption and its implications across society.
“We know of no other market where a 10x cost differential has not led to a disruption,” it said.
“This very significant cost differential will be the key driver for rapid and widespread transport as a service (TaaS) adoption for car owners.
“Potential car buyers will stop buying new cars. This will drive a rapid decline in production of new cars. As the volume of new-car sales falls, revenues will shrink and profits will drop even further.
“A vicious cycle will ensue, leading to factory closures and consolidation of production. The consequences of a shrinking industry will include a loss of economies of scale, which will lead to higher manufacturing costs for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. “The result of increased supply of TaaS and reduced demand for individual owned cars is that the resale value of all used cars will plummet.
“The rising cost of maintenance, gasoline and insurance; the cost of storing or taxing worthless vehicles; and the lack of a used-car market might mean that prices go to zero or even below. That is to say, owners may need to pay to dispose of their cars.
“New ICE vehicle sales are finished by 2024, just three years after the regulatory approval and commercial availability of autonomous EV technology.
“In 2024, the pre-existing vehicle stock can more than meet the passenger-mile requirement for transport under individual ownership.
“Car dealers cease to exist by 2024, with no new individual ownership car sales from 2024 onwards and no direct consumer purchases given that TaaS vehicles will be fleet owned.
“Car insurance will be disrupted by a 90 per cent fall in the insurance costs incurred by TaaS users (relative to individual ownership), which is driven by the elimination of theft and sharp reductions in insurer costs for liability, injury and vehicle damage.

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Carnut
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PostPosted: Fri, May 19 2017, 2:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lets just say I'm just a bit skeptical
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58 Yeoman
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PostPosted: Fri, May 19 2017, 2:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think it was back in '58 that they said that by now, we'd be flying our cars through the air and living like George Jetson, and that monorails would be everywhere (not just Disneyworld and Disneyland). I'm going to wait and see...
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Charlie Chops 1940
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PostPosted: Fri, May 19 2017, 4:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fling cars are in our future again - saw it on the internet last week - must be true.

Anybody who has an internet connection can be a think tank. I think that outfit is full of horse pucker.

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idrivejunk
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PostPosted: Fri, May 19 2017, 8:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Meadow muffins. Laughing Rolling Eyes

All I want to know is how soon can they please outlaw blinding headlights on new vehicles. Shocked Idea Question
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UGLY OLDS
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PostPosted: Fri, May 19 2017, 10:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Charlie ...Phil.... They were just a little bit off about "flying cars" ....They actually meant to say "Flying Trucks" ... Shocked Laughing

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ryt1GMmkVMY

Bob... Wink

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Crosley
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PostPosted: Sat, May 20 2017, 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Article is a fantasy piece, as I see it.

We have the self driving cars here in metro Phx... If you watch the news much, you may have heard.

i've been asking questions on social media as: "how well do these self driving cars see motorcycles" ... No direct answer yet.

We had a self driving car rear end a motorcycle officer stopped at traffic lite. The officer noticed the car start to roll up on him, he bailed off the bike. The car lightly hit the bike as the bike laid on the ground. How accurate the article I read was? I dont know.

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PostPosted: Sat, May 20 2017, 11:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If they make electric flying cars powered by lithium batteries that idea will do itself in. Human nature is set-up with the idea that every thing should be bettER and that somebody (like Trump) can do it bEST but I find enough to worry about with-outlooking to far to someone to tell me what I should be worrying about. I've tried a long time to impress myself with my Jeepster (GPster) but I am coming to the reality that it will only be JST3DRV. GPster
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PostPosted: Sat, May 20 2017, 8:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In 1962 or 3, either Ford Times or the annual buyers guide predicted that by the 1980's, autos would be guided by a wire in the pavement transmitting a signal for navigation. Smile Little slow to change, aren't we. If you believe "follow the trail of the money", you'll know if something is possible.
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PostPosted: Sun, May 21 2017, 9:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This Dowling fellow must be bosom buddies w/ Al Gore.
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PostPosted: Sun, May 21 2017, 3:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Time for rodders to embrace electric power? I'm warming to the idea and glancing at my Karmann Ghia.
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PostPosted: Mon, May 22 2017, 2:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

idrivejunk wrote:
Meadow muffins. Laughing Rolling Eyes

All I want to know is how soon can they please outlaw blinding headlights on new vehicles. Shocked Idea Question


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dvPZ3H1Vm4


Mac wrote:
Time for rodders to embrace electric power? I'm warming to the idea and glancing at my Karmann Ghia.


i've had an idea in back of my brain for an electric powered hot rod. at my current Rolling Eyes pace i'll be dead 20 years before i get around to it Twisted Evil

later jim

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PostPosted: Tue, May 23 2017, 9:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hello;
Don't believe anything in the internet!!! Opinions are like butt holes, "everybody has one!"

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